Application of ANN in Tourism Business Development for Demand Forecasting and Management of Tourism Headcount

Abstract

With the rapid development of tourism, it is imperative to forecast tourism demand to maintain the long-term stable development of the tourism industry and make good planning for future tourism enterprises. The study uses the classical model of artificial neural network-BP neural network for tourism number demand prediction, given the problems of traditional BP neural networks, such as prematurity and poor convergence speed, this paper studies the iterative optimization of the algorithm of particle swarm fusion immune mechanism and finds out the optimal network parameters, to build an IAPSO-BP tourism demand prediction model. Tourist amounts from 2007 to 2017 in certain area-related data samples, the training model of iterative speed and fitting effect, and the rolling forecasting method will be used to predict the 2018-2022 years of travel. It can be seen from the convergence curve that the convergence speed of parameter optimization of the IAPSO algorithm is the fastest; the improved
IAPSO-BP network has the best training fitting effect, with a relative average error of 2.03% and an absolute average error of 4.37%, which is better than other forecasting methods. The IAPSO-BP prediction model has higher accuracy and better performance, which can provide an effective basis for the development planning of tourism enterprises and has higher practical application value.